Us recession dating
Ryssdal: So with all the appropriate caveats in place, that, you know, we’re not calling anything right now, and the recession is not starting tomorrow, what are you as a practicing economist looking at right now?Poterba: Well, the Business Cycle Dating Committee looks only in retrospect.The Federal Reserve is not cheering: on April 14th Ben Bernanke, the chairman, predicted a “moderate” recovery amidst “significant restraints”.Small-business confidence declined in March for a second month.Poterba: Well, if it’s looking for a recession, then it’s looking for evidence of a significant and sustained downturn in economic activity that is broadly distributed across the economy.
recessions had become milder over time, the recent global crisis reversed that trend.By the end of the current quarter the American economy may have returned to its pre-recession peak in real GDP. Prominent voices like Northwestern University's Robert Gordon, Harvard's Jeffrey Frankel, and Stanford's Robert Hall have declared the recession dead and gone.But those men all sit on the National Bureau of Economic Research's recession-dating committee, responsible for pinpointing the beginning and end of business cycles.Any number of unpredictable shocks, from a big sovereign default to rapid monetary tightening in overheating emerging markets, could undermine the recovery. As of March, 15m Americans were jobless, while another 9m were unwillingly working only part-time.Knowing just when the recession ended will not be of much comfort to them.
In the summer of 2009 real GDP and industrial production hit bottom and resumed growth, and expansion in both measures strengthened as the year ended.